U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Rose in March U.S. business trends continued to increase, pointing to robust economic growth throughout 2018
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Improve; Prices JumpThe Conference Board Leading Economic Index rose 0.3% to 109, following increases with the index in January and February. (…)
“The strengths among the components of the leading index have been very widespread over the last six months. However, labor market components made negative contributions in March and bear watching in the near future,” he said.
The board’s coincident index, designed to reflect current economic conditions, rose 0.2% in March from the prior month. The lagging index increased by 0.1%.
These charts from Doug Short suggest little recession risk at this time:
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Improve; Prices Jump
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 23.2 during April, reversing some of March’s decline. Expectations had been for a reading of 21.0 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. A slightly higher 36.9% of firms reported an improvement in business activity while a slightly lower 13.7% reported a worsening. As a diffusion index, readings above zero indicate expansion.
Haver Analytics constructs an ISM-Adjusted General Business Conditions Index. This measure weakened this month to 59.7 from March’s 30-year high. During the last ten years, there has been a 68% correlation between the quarterly ISM-adjusted Philadelphia Fed Index and quarterly real GDP growth
A drop in new orders, shipments and inventories led the decline in the composite index. Unfilled orders, which is not part of the ISM-Adjusted index, also fell sharply. The continued rise in the vendor delivery index to a record high 20.7 suggests a meaningful slowing in product delivery speeds. (…)
The prices paid index jumped to 56.4 its highest level since early 2011. The percent of respondents reporting higher prices soared to 58.9%, while just 2.5% paid lower prices. The index of prices received rose to a cycle high 29.8.
The future activity index dropped to 40.7, its lowest level in nine months. New and unfilled orders as well as employment declined, while shipments and prices paid increased.
Largest Contributors to the Budget Deficit: Tax Cuts and New Spending
Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
EARNINGS WATCH
We have 73 Q1 reports in and the beat rate is a high 77% and the surprise factor a high 5.4% (+1.6% on revenues). Blended EPS are now seen up 19.7% by Thomson Reuters, up from +18.5% on April 1st.
Trailing EPS are $138.46 but would be about $145 after Q1’18 after adjusting for the tax reform impact during the last 9 months of 2017.
With this adjustment, the Rule of 20 P/E is 20.7, slightly overvalued. It drops to 19.2 if incorporating analysts’ estimates for the full year 2018 of $158.