U.S. SERVICES PMIs

S&P Global: Sharp rise in business activity as new orders return to growth

The seasonally adjusted S&P Global US Services PMI^® Business Activity Index rose to a one-year high of 54.8 in May, up sharply from a reading of 51.3 in April. The index pointed to a marked expansion of services activity during the month. Output has now increased in each of the past 16 months.

The increase in business activity reflected a renewed expansion of new orders, which rose modestly in May following a first reduction in six months during April. Some respondents to the survey indicated that marketing activity had helped them to secure new business, while others pointed to improvements in economic conditions.

In contrast to the picture for overall new business, however, new export orders decreased for the fourth month running in May. Panellists reported that price rises had impacted external demand. Moreover, the pace of decline was solid and the fastest since January 2023.

Despite the pick-up in total new orders, service providers continued to lower their staffing levels in May, the second month running in which this has been the case. The drop in workforce numbers often reflected the non-replacement of leavers. The pace of job cuts was only slight, however, and weaker than that seen in April as some firms looked to hire staff in response to renewed growth of new orders.

Companies were still able to keep on top of workloads, as shown by a fourth consecutive fall in backlogs of work. That said, the latest reduction in outstanding business was only marginal and the weakest in the current sequence as higher new orders imparted some pressure on capacity.

While employment decreased further in May, higher staff costs were again the key factor behind a sharp rise in overall input prices as wages were increased. The pace of input cost inflation quickened from April and was sharper than the pre-pandemic average. Panellists also reported higher shipping costs.

Likewise, a faster increase in selling prices was recorded in May. Firms raised their charges at a solid pace, extending the current sequence of inflation to four years.

Signs of demand improving was a factor behind a slight strengthening of business confidence, which nonetheless remained softer than the series average. Other factors set to support growth of business activity over the coming year are planned marketing efforts, plus hopes for a softening of inflation and reduction in interest rates.

Looking at business trends across the combined manufacturing and service sectors, the S&P Global US Composite PMI Output Index* rose to 54.5 in May, up sharply from 51.3 in April. The index signaled a marked monthly increase in business activity, and one that was the strongest since April 2022. Growth accelerated across both the manufacturing and service sectors.

Companies increased output amid a renewed rise in new orders, following a slight fall in April. New export business also expanded, albeit marginally.

Meanwhile, employment was broadly unchanged as a solid increase in manufacturing was cancelled out by lower staffing levels in services.

Input costs continued to rise sharply,with the rate of inflation quickening in May. Selling price inflation also accelerated.

Finally, business confidence improved slightly from the previous month as companies remained optimistic that output will increase over the coming year.

Andrew Harker, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

“A return to growth of new business following April’s blip supported a marked strengthening of growth in the US service sector in May. Coming on the back of a similar acceleration in the manufacturing sector, the data suggest a healthy pace of expansion in the US private sector approaching the midway point of the year.

“It was not all positive in May, however, with services employment down for the second month running as firms wait to see whether the renewed rise in new business will be sustained before committing to new hires.

“Despite lower employment, wage pressures remained a key factor pushing up input costs, which increased sharply again in May and prompted a faster increase in selling prices, providing further evidence that inflation remains sticky.”

ISM:

In May, the Services PMI^® registered 53.8 percent, 4.4 percentage points higher than April’s reading of 49.4 percent. The contraction in April ended a string of 15 months of services sector growth following a composite index reading of 49 percent in December 2022; the last contraction before that was in May 2020 (45.4 percent).

• The Business Activity Index registered 61.2 percent in May, which is 10.3 percentage points higher than the 50.9 percent recorded in April.
• The New Orders Index expanded in May for the 17th consecutive month after contracting in December 2022 for the first time since May 2020; the figure of 54.1 percent is 1.9 percentage points higher than the April reading of 52.2 percent.
• The Employment Index contracted for the fifth time in six months, though at a slower rate in May with a reading of 47.1 percent, a 1.2-percentage point increase compared to the 45.9 percent recorded in April.
• The Prices Index registered 58.1 percent in May, a 1.1-percentage point decrease from April’s reading of 59.2 percent. Wells Fargo notes that “not one of the 18 industries included in this release reported decreasing prices paid for the second consecutive month.”
• Thirteen [of 18] industries reported growth in May.

This Wells Fargo chart shows that the ISM Services index remains historically low, unlike S&P Global’s.

Demand for services was strong in May after being softish January to April. Both surveys note weak employment however. ISM respondents indicate weak retail/wholesale demand.

Both surveys signal continued wage and overall inflation pressures.

Canada Services PMI: Return to modest growth signalled in May

Underpinned by a rise in new business, Canada’s services economy experienced an increase in activity during May for the first time in a year. Modest growth encouraged staff recruitment in some cases, enabling firms to keep on top of workloads. Cost pressures remained significant, however, amid reports of higher salaries being awarded. Firms passed on these increased operating expenses wherever possible.

Bank of Canada Cuts Rates to Become First G-7 Central Bank to Ease Policy Gov. Tiff Macklem signals more cuts are possible as inflation cools

Canada’s central bank said a cut was warranted because officials are now increasingly confident that inflation is moving closer to their 2% target. Bank of Canada Gov. Tiff Macklem said more rate cuts could be in the offing should inflation show further signs of slowing, though he added the pace of reductions would likely be gradual. He also warned households, businesses and governments that rates are unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels. (…)

The latest data for April estimated prices in Canada rose from a year ago by 2.7%—or the fourth straight month it was below 3%, which is the upper end of the central bank’s inflation-targeting range. The average of the Bank of Canada’s preferred measures of core inflation, which strips out volatile items like food and energy, cooled in May to 2.75%—the lowest level in nearly three years. Furthermore, Macklem said, the proportion of components in Canada’s consumer-price index basket that rose more than 3% is now closer to historical average.

“This all means restrictive monetary policy is working to relieve price pressures,” he said.

The Bank of Canada lowered its target for the overnight rate to 4.75% from 5%, where it sat for 11 months. Over a 16-month period ended last July, the Bank of Canada delivered 4.75 percentage points of rate increases to pull inflation down from a June 2022 peak of 8.1%. The sharp rise in interest rates has hit harder in Canada relative to the U.S., in part because of the country’s elevated household and corporate debt levels and its reliance on housing to drive growth. (…)

First-quarter gross domestic product in Canada rose 1.7% annualized, well below the central bank’s forecast of 2.8% growth, and inched up 0.5% from a year earlier. Per capita GDP has declined in six of the past seven quarters. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate sits at a 27-month high, and job vacancies have fallen to their lowest level in over three years. (…)

Bank of Canada’s Pivot Opens Path for Others to Diverge From Fed

Macklem made it clear that Canada’s interest rate policy doesn’t need to move in lockstep with that of its southern neighbor, despite the potential for downward pressure on the loonie. It was a bold signal that divergence in rates isn’t a huge concern for one of the largest US trading partners.

More central banks are weighing rate cuts, even as the Federal Reserve likely won’t start easing until later this year — if it cuts at all. The European Central Bank is expected to lower borrowing costs Thursday, while the Swiss National Bank and Sweden’s Riksbank have already pivoted to easier policy. (…)

• “The overall message from today’s statement and press conference was more dovish than we expected. While we continue to forecast cuts in September and December (for an additional 50bp of easing in 2024), we see a July cut as a clear possibility if upcoming inflation prints are in line with the recent trend.” (Goldman Sachs)

MONEY FLOWS…

Goldman Sees ‘Wall of Money’ Fueling Stock Market’s Summer Party Passive inflows, early July strength set up continuing rally

A flood of cash from passive equity allocations will pour into the stock market in early July, setting up a continuing rally through the early summer, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s trading desk.

“New quarter (Q3), new half year (2H), this is when a wall of money comes into the equity market quickly,” Scott Rubner, Goldman’s global markets division managing director and tactical specialist, wrote in a note to clients Wednesday.

In addition, share prices should benefit from strong seasonal trends and rising engagement from retail investors. “I am seeing a re-emergence in retail traders during the summer, they tend to come around in July,” he wrote.

Since 1928, the first 15 days of July have been the best two-week trading period of the year for equities, and they tend to fade after July 17, according to Rubner. (…)

By Rubner’s calculations, roughly nine basis points of new capital gets put to work every July. For this year, that would be $26 billion based on $29 trillion in passive assets available for investment. (…)

But it’s a one-way flow:

• “Investors who think today’s #stock market is somehow vastly different from 1999/2000’s #bubble simply aren’t paying attention.” (RBA)

• Bear markets are rising in big tech

(…) One metric that can’t be explained away is the number of stocks in bear markets. We use the common definition of a 20% drawdown from the most recent 52-week high as a bear market.

Oddly, more and more NDX stocks are falling into that definition. This is a change from the initial phase of the rally and is quite similar to the rally in the fall of 2021, when the index rose while more of its stocks fell into bear markets.

Over the past 25 years, there have been more than 100 trading days when a divergence like this has been in effect. These are days when the NDX closed at a 52-week high, yet at least 13% more stocks fell into bear markets than the lowest level over the past year. In other words, the index was rising, but more and more stocks were off more than 20% from their highs. (…)

Warning signs have been building in recent weeks, particularly on the Nasdaq and, even more notably, among the tech stocks in the Nasdaq 100. The index has been doing just fine, but participation is lagging badly. These conditions can persist for weeks or even months, but forward returns over the medium term tend to be weak by the time they’ve reached the current levels. (…)

BTW: US antitrust enforcer says ‘urgent’ scrutiny needed over Big Tech’s control of AI Jonathan Kanter pushes for ‘meaningful intervention’ over concentration of power in artificial intelligence sector

US Job Openings Fall to Lowest Since 2021 in Broad Cooldown

US job openings fell in April to the lowest level in over three years, consistent with a gradual slowdown in the labor market.

Available positions decreased to 8.06 million from a downwardly revised 8.36 million reading in the prior month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, known as JOLTS, showed Tuesday. The figure was below all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

The decline helped lower a ratio closely watched by the Federal Reserve — the number of vacancies per unemployed worker — to the lowest level in nearly three years.

The pullback was fairly broad. Vacancies in health care fell to the lowest in three years, while those for manufacturing dropped to the lowest since the end of 2020. Demand for government jobs also weakened. (…)

The rate of hiring and layoffs were both unchanged. While layoffs remain historically low, hiring has slowed down, suggesting companies are comfortable that their staffing levels are appropriate to meet demand.

The so-called quits rate, which measures people who voluntarily leave their job, held at the lowest level since 2020. The recent decline could indicate that people are holding onto their current jobs because they feel less confident in their ability to find a new position.

The ratio of openings to unemployed people eased to 1.2, the lowest since June 2021. The figure — which Fed officials pay close attention to — has eased substantially over the past year. At its peak in 2022, the ratio was 2 to 1. (…)

Indeed Job Postings lead the JOLTS to the 8M range. This leading indicator is down another 5% in the past month (through May 30).

Two more things:

1. The leaders of job growth this year (private education/health services, government and leisure/hospitality) led the decline in openings.
2. March’s figure was downwardly revised by 133k to 8.355 million, confirming waning labor market momentum.

BTW, the ratio of openings to unemployeds, at 1.24, is back to its October 2019 level.

SERVICES PMIs

The U.S. PMIs are out later this morning.

Eurozone economy grows at fastest rate in a year as inflation cools

The seasonally adjusted HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI Output Index increased in May, as has also been the case throughout 2024 so far, to a one-year high of 52.2, from 51.7 in April. Overall, this indicated the strongest increase in euro area economic activity since May 2023, and one that was only narrowly softer than seen on average since data were first available in 1998.

Of the top-four eurozone economies, France was the outlier in May as a marginal and renewed contraction in private sector activity contrasted with growth in Germany, Spain and Italy. Spain’s position as the top performer was solidified as economic growth here was sharp, quickening to a 14-month high. The bloc’s largest economy, Germany, also registered a marked upturn, with output volumes rising at the fastest pace for a year. On the other hand, Italy’s expansion lost momentum, cooling to its weakest since February.

Stronger demand conditions were a key reason behind May’s upturn in business output across the euro area. Total new order intakes rose for a second month in succession and at the quickest rate since April 2023. Sector data highlighted a further pick-up in demand for services, while the downturn in factory orders cooled markedly from the previous month. The latest survey data suggested that improved sales performances were restricted to domestic markets, as new business received from abroad declined, in line with the trend since March 2022.

Confidence in the year-ahead outlook for business activity strengthened further in May after April’s fractional setback. Overall, growth expectations have improved in seven of the last eight months. The level of positive sentiment was at its highest since February 2022 and well above its long-term average.

Amid stronger optimism and a sustained uplift in new business, eurozone companies raised employment for a fifth consecutive month. The rate of job creation matched that seen in April and was therefore the joint-fastest since June 2023. The service sector was again the driving force behind recruitment in May as factory workforce numbers shrank.

There remained no evidence of operating capacities becoming stretched by the recent uptick in sales, according to the HCOB PMI survey, as backlogs of work decreased for a fourteenth month running. The rate of backlog depletion was only mild, however, as the level of work-in-hand at services companies stabilised.

Meanwhile, prices gauges signalled cooling inflationary pressures across the eurozone midway through the second quarter.

However, the increase in input costs remained sharp and well above its pre-pandemic average. It was a similar picture for output prices – the rate of inflation in selling charges eased to a six-month low, but remained considerably steeper than that seen on average prior to 2020. Manufacturers continued to register reductions in both of the survey’s pricing measures, whereas services companies registered historically sharp rises.

The HCOB Eurozone Services PMI Business Activity Index signalled another solid increase in activity across the largest sector of the euro area’s economy midway through the second quarter. Posting 53.2 in May, the index was broadly unchanged from April’s 11-month high of 53.3.

Another solid expansion in services activity was aided by a stronger increase in new business inflows. Demand for eurozone services rose at a solid pace that was the fastest in a year. Employment levels were subsequently lifted – the fortieth straight month that this has been the case – with the rate of job creation at its fastest since June 2023.

Service sector companies in the eurozone were able to manage their workloads efficiently, as indicated by broadly unchanged backlogs of work during May.

Pricing pressures across the eurozone services economy remained elevated, despite cooling. Rates of input cost and output charge inflation eased to their slowest for three years and seven months, respectively.

Looking ahead, expectations for services activity in the year ahead turned more positive during May. Overall, the level of business optimism was at its highest since February 2022.

Commenting on the PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said:

“The spectre of recession is off the table. This is thanks to the service sector, where the upswing has recently broadened. In Germany, we can now talk of an upward trend, Italy’s business activity remains solid, and Spain has improved from an already strong position. Only France has experienced a setback, slipping into slightly negative territory. Overall, the service sector is likely to ensure that the Eurozone will show positive growth again in the second quarter. This is evident from the Composite PMI and our GDP Nowcast, which takes the PMI into account.

“New business in the service sector is gaining momentum. The corresponding index has been rising since last November, and order intakes have been increasing for three months. This is complemented by steady employment growth and future expectations, which have brightened considerably.

“France appears to be an outlier among the four leading Eurozone economies with its weak economic performance. However, new business is growing slightly faster than in the previous month, bringing France more in line with the other economies. We are confident that the Eurozone’s second-largest economy will not curb the region’s overall growth during the coming months.

“The European Central Bank (ECB) is getting a tailwind from the PMI. The PMI price components for the service sector indicate a slight easing of inflationary pressures, making an ECB rate cut on June 6 more likely. Reduced inflation pressures are evident in both costs and selling prices. This development is expected to be explicitly mentioned in the press conference by ECB President Christine Lagarde, countering the unexpectedly sharp wage increases reported for the first quarter. However, the PMI price indices do not yet give the all-clear, as they are unusually high in the context of the rather weak economic situation.”

ECB’s Inflation Challenge Looks More and More Like the Fed’s Rate cut this week not in question, but path beyond unclear

(…) May’s inflation reading for the 20-nation euro area provided the latest warning sign for the ECB, accelerating by more than anticipated to 2.6% from a year earlier. Even more worrisome for officials were the surge in services prices and the unexpected strengthening of underlying pressures. (…)

China: Services activity growth fastest in ten months

The seasonally adjusted headline Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index climbed to 54.0 in May, up from 52.5 in April.This signalled an expansion in activity for a seventeenth consecutive month and at the fastest pace since July 2023.

Underpinning the latest acceleration in services activity growth was faster new business inflows. Incoming new work increased at the quickest pace since May 2023 and solid overall. Likewise for export business, the rate of expansion was the most pronounced in a year. Anecdotal evidence pointed to improvements in domestic and external market conditions, alongside the launch of new products as factors helping to drive the rise in new work.

As a result of growth in new business and activity, staffing levels expanded for the first time in four months. The rate of employment growth was marginal, but the fastest since September 2023. Additional staff were hired in May to cope with ongoing workloads according to panellists. This was effective as the level of backlogged work continued to decline in May, albeit only marginally.

Turning to prices, average input costs increased in May, extending the sequence of inflation to just under four years. The rate of inflation accelerated to a level comparable with the long-run average in April to the fastest in 11 months. Rising input material, labour and transport costs were mainly mentioned by survey respondents as factors for the rise in input prices.

Consequent of rising input cost inflation, Chinese service providers opted to share their increased cost burdens with clients. This resulted in the fastest increase in average prices charged since January 2022. The rate of inflation was moderate, but nonetheless above its pre-pandemic average.

Finally, sentiment remained positive in the Chinese service sector in May. That said, confidence levels fell to a seven-month low amid rising concerns over the global economic outlook and inflation.

Commenting on the China General Composite PMI® data, Dr. Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said:

“In May, the Caixin China General Composite PMI measured 54.1, up 1.3 points from the previous month and continuing to hit the highest level since last May. Growth in supply and demand int he manufacturing and services sectors picked up pace, with a particularly strong increase in services demand. Exports in both sectors improved amid market optimism. Employment in the services industry shifted from a decline to an increase, driving the index at the composite level into expansion for the first time in nine months.

“Currently, China’s economy is generally stable and remains on the road to recovery. This is especially evident from the expectation-beating growth in industrial production in April. The economy’s performance is consistent with the Caixin manufacturing PMI, which has remained in expansionary territory for seven consecutive months. (…)

Bloomberg:

The private survey result provided investors with a respite from worries stoked by official data published last week showing only moderate growth in the services sector in May and an unexpected shrinkage in the manufacturing industry. A Caixin poll of Chinese manufacturers, published Monday, also indicated solid expansion in factory activity last month.

The state of AI in early 2024: Gen AI adoption spikes and starts to generate value A McKinsey survey.

In the latest McKinsey Global Survey on AI, 65 percent of respondents report that their organizations are regularly using gen AI, nearly double the percentage from our previous survey just ten months ago. Respondents’ expectations for gen AI’s impact remain as high as they were last year, with three-quarters predicting that gen AI will lead to significant or disruptive change in their industries in the years ahead.

Organizations are already seeing material benefits from gen AI use, reporting both cost decreases and revenue jumps in the business units deploying the technology. The survey also provides insights into the kinds of risks presented by gen AI—most notably, inaccuracy—as well as the emerging practices of top performers to mitigate those challenges and capture value.

Interest in generative AI has also brightened the spotlight on a broader set of AI capabilities. For the past six years, AI adoption by respondents’ organizations has hovered at about 50 percent. This year, the survey finds that adoption has jumped to 72 percent. And the interest is truly global in scope. Our 2023 survey found that AI adoption did not reach 66 percent in any region; however, this year more than two-thirds of respondents in nearly every region say their organizations are using AI. Looking by industry, the biggest increase in adoption can be found in professional services.

Also, responses suggest that companies are now using AI in more parts of the business. Half of respondents say their organizations have adopted AI in two or more business functions, up from less than a third of respondents in 2023. (…)

The average organization using gen AI is doing so in two functions, most often in marketing and sales and in product and service development—two functions in which previous research determined that gen AI adoption could generate the most value—as well as in IT. The biggest increase from 2023 is found in marketing and sales, where reported adoption has more than doubled. Yet across functions, only two use cases, both within marketing and sales, are reported by 15 percent or more of respondents.

Compared with 2023, respondents are much more likely to be using gen AI at work and even more likely to be using gen AI both at work and in their personal lives. The survey finds upticks in gen AI use across all regions, with the largest increases in Asia–Pacific and Greater China. Respondents at the highest seniority levels, meanwhile, show larger jumps in the use of gen Al tools for work and outside of work compared with their midlevel-management peers. Looking at specific industries, respondents working in energy and materials and in professional services report the largest increase in gen AI use. (…)

For the first time, our latest survey explored the value created by gen AI use by business function. The function in which the largest share of respondents report seeing cost decreases is human resources. Respondents most commonly report meaningful revenue increases (of more than 5 percent) in supply chain and inventory management. For analytical AI, respondents most often report seeing cost benefits in service operations—in line with what we found last year—as well as meaningful revenue increases from AI use in marketing and sales. (…)

The latest survey also sought to understand how, and how quickly, organizations are deploying these new gen AI tools. We have found three archetypes for implementing gen AI solutions: takers use off-the-shelf, publicly available solutions; shapers customize those tools with proprietary data and systems; and makers develop their own foundation models from scratch. Across most industries, the survey results suggest that organizations are finding off-the-shelf offerings applicable to their business needs—though many are pursuing opportunities to customize models or even develop their own.

About half of reported gen AI uses within respondents’ business functions are utilizing off-the-shelf, publicly available models or tools, with little or no customization. Respondents in energy and materials, technology, and media and telecommunications are more likely to report significant customization or tuning of publicly available models or developing their own proprietary models to address specific business needs. (…)

Gen AI is a new technology, and organizations are still early in the journey of pursuing its opportunities and scaling it across functions. So it’s little surprise that only a small subset of respondents (46 out of 876) report that a meaningful share of their organizations’ EBIT can be attributed to their deployment of gen AI.

Still, these gen AI leaders are worth examining closely. These, after all, are the early movers, who already attribute more than 10 percent of their organizations’ EBIT to their use of gen AI. Forty-two percent of these high performers say more than 20 percent of their EBIT is attributable to their use of nongenerative, analytical AI, and they span industries and regions—though most are at organizations with less than $1 billion in annual revenue. (…)

To start, gen AI high performers are using gen AI in more business functions—an average of three functions, while others average two. They, like other organizations, are most likely to use gen AI in marketing and sales and product or service development, but they’re much more likely than others to use gen AI solutions in risk, legal, and compliance; in strategy and corporate finance; and in supply chain and inventory management. They’re more than three times as likely as others to be using gen AI in activities ranging from processing of accounting documents and risk assessment to R&D testing and pricing and promotions. (…)

What else are these high performers doing differently? For one thing, they are paying more attention to gen-AI-related risks. Perhaps because they are further along on their journeys, they are more likely than others to say their organizations have experienced every negative consequence from gen AI we asked about, from cybersecurity and personal privacy to explainability and IP infringement. (…)

Who’s chips is it anyway?

Elon Musk ordered Nvidia to ship thousands of AI chips reserved for Tesla to X and xAI

(…) On Tesla’s first-quarter earnings call in April, Musk said the electric vehicle company will increase the number of active H100s — Nvidia’s flagship artificial intelligence chip — from 35,000 to 85,000 by the end of this year. He also wrote in a post on X a few days later that Tesla would spend $10 billion this year “in combined training and inference AI.”

But emails written by Nvidia senior staff and widely shared inside the company suggest that Musk presented an exaggerated picture of Tesla’s procurement to shareholders. Correspondence from Nvidia staffers also indicates that Musk diverted a sizable shipment of AI processors that had been reserved for Tesla to his social media company X, formerly known as Twitter.

By ordering Nvidia to let privately held X jump the line ahead of Tesla, Musk pushed back the automaker’s receipt of more than $500 million in graphics processing units, or GPUs, by months, likely adding to delays in setting up the supercomputers Tesla says it needs to develop autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots. (…)

A more recent Nvidia email, from late April, said Musk’s comment on the first-quarter Tesla call “conflicts with bookings” and that his April post on X about $10 billion in AI spending also “conflicts with bookings and FY 2025 forecasts.” (…)

The new information from the emails, read by CNBC, highlights an escalating conflict between Musk and some agitated Tesla shareholders who question whether the billionaire CEO is fulfilling his obligations to Tesla while also running a collection of other companies that require his attention, resources and hefty amounts of capital. (…)

IN GOD WE TRUST?

Well, even that is down to the very low 30s.

This is pathetic, really. Congress is down to 7%.

The military? Really?

The Supreme Court, guardian of the cherished Constitution, is down to 27% from 40% in 2017.

Thankfully, we still have small businesses, not listed because almost off the chart at 65%, pretty stable over time. But who shops there?

Modi Loses Majority in Stunning India Election Setback The prime minister is poised to keep power for a third term even after voters denied him an outright majority following an election dominated by high unemployment and inflation.