CONSUMER WATCH
US Consumer Borrowing Rises $25.5 Billion, Most Since Late 2022 Credit outstanding in July topped all forecasts in survey
(…) Revolving debt outstanding, which includes credit cards, increased $10.6 billion, the most in five months. Non-revolving credit, such as loans for vehicle purchases and school tuition, surged $14.8 billion in more than a year. (…)
The increase in borrowing helped fuel the biggest jump in retail sales during the month since early 2023. That included a pickup in purchases in motor vehicles. (…)
A New York Fed report last month showed that while the share of overall consumer debt in delinquency held at 3.2% in the second quarter, the share of auto and credit-card loans that were newly delinquent continued to creep higher.
The share of auto loan balances that became at least 30 days delinquent was the largest since 2010. The share of credit card debt that was newly delinquent rose to 9.05%, the most in about 12 years.
- Net credit losses have climbed in Citi’s large cards business, and payment rates have started to “come down a bit,” he said, adding that it’s within ranges previously discussed by the firm. Meanwhile, more affluent customers are driving much of the spending growth. Mason said that, on a full-year basis, net credit losses look to be about 3.5% to 4% in the company’s branded cards business and 5.75% to 6.25% in retail services.
Delinquency rates are not back to their pre-financial crisis levels just yet:
Consumer loans have reached back to disposable income trends. Expenditures keep outpacing both traditional sources of funds.
The gap is filled by reduced savings owing to the huge wealth effect from equities and housing. Note how all lines are well above the pre-pandemic trend. See any bite from higher interest rates? Income, credit and spending are all well above trend and unwavering.
From Bank of America’s internal credit card data:
Looking at the underpinnings of the US consumer, the picture remains fairly healthy. While data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows that jobs growth is cooling, with nonfarm payrolls growth of 142K in August 2024 compared to the 2023 average of 251K, our Bank of America internal data on after-tax wages and salaries growth is not showing signs of a slowdown, and, in fact, accelerated in August for all income groups. After-tax wage growth remains highest for lower-income households in August 2024, though there has been some notable acceleration in higher-income wage growth since last year.
Meanwhile, Bank of America internal data on households’ savings and checking balances continues to show that median balances, while well off their highs, remained up at least 10% in inflation-adjusted terms, with nominal growth up over 33%. And while some headlines have speculated that uncertainty around the upcoming US election will stifle consumers in the coming months, a study from the University of Chicago finds that while the election may affect consumer sentiment, spending plans typically aren’t impacted.
BTW: Bank of America announced today that it’s raising the minimum wage it pays employees to $24, up from $23. The bank’s increase goes into effect next month and will apply to workers across its consumer business: bank tellers, call center workers, and more. Bank of America previously said it would raise its minimum wage to at least $25 by 2025. “The payback is lower turnover.” In 2019, the bank said it would pay $20 per hour, at minimum. The following year it hiked pay by $3 per hour to meet that goal. That helped set off a minimum pay-hiking frenzy, with some big bank rivals following suit. (Axios)
The NY Fed’s August Survey of Consumer Expectations shows little, if any, consumer angst:
- The latest Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Sept. 9) is at +2.5%. “The nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 3.2 percent and 0.0 percent, respectively, to 3.5 percent and 1.2 percent.”
- The NY Fed Nowcast is at +2.6% (Sept. 6), up from +1.8% on Aug. 16. Real GDP was up 3.0% in Q2.
The fixed income market anticipates big cuts:
Small Business Optimism Dips in August
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell by 2.5 points in August to 91.2, erasing all of July’s gain. (…) The Uncertainty Index rose to 92, its highest level since October 2020. Inflation remains the top issue among small business owners, with 24% of owners reporting it as their top small business operating issue, down one point from July. (…)
Chinese Exports Rose in August Despite Growing Trade Barriers Outbound shipments rose 8.7% from a year earlier in August
Outbound shipments in August rose 8.7% compared with the same period a year earlier, picking up from July’s 7.0% increase, the General Administration of Customs said Tuesday. That beat the 6.6% growth tipped by a Wall Street Journal poll of economists.
The rise in shipments sent the value of exports to their fastest on-year increase in 17 months, as export volumes reached a record high, according to Zichun Huang, an economist at Capital Economics. “Outbound shipments are likely to remain strong in the coming months,” added Huang, in a note to clients. (…)
The growth of China’s exports to the U.S., its second-largest trade partner, accelerated to 13.4% on year in August, up from July’s 8.0%. Shipments in August to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and EU, its No. 1 and No. 3 trade partners, slowed but still grew at 9.0% and 5.0% respectively, according to calculations made by The Wall Street Journal based on official data. (…)
The lackluster domestic demand was also indicated in Tuesday’s import data. August import growth cooled to 0.5% in August, after surging 7.2% in July, official data showed. Economists had projected August imports would rise 2.5%. That widened the August trade surplus to $91.02 billion, compared with $84.65 billion in July and the $80.0 billion tipped by a WSJ poll of economists.
Bloomberg adds:
Chinese companies are having to cut prices to secure sales, with the volume of shipments rising faster than the value in recent months. Data out Monday showed that producer prices continued to fall, with prices of manufactured goods dropping 2.7% in August from a year earlier. (…)
Vehicle exports soared to a record. The breakdown of where those cars went isn’t available yet, but it may show Chinese companies trying to get more EVs into Europe before definitive tariffs kick in.
Overall exports to almost every market grew, with double digit expansions to the EU, India and Brazil. Shipments to the US grew 5.1% to the most since September 2022, while exports to Russia also picked up to the highest this year.
Among EU nations, shipments to Germany exceeded $10 billion for the first time since August 2022 and those to France hit the highest in more than two years.
Global Trade Dims as Chips Boom Faces Risks: Bloomberg Tracker
Appetite for chips in August emerged as one bright spot in an otherwise increasingly gloomy outlook for world commerce — but even that sector faces headwinds.
Bloomberg’s Trade Tracker showed two out of 10 key measures of global commerce in “below normal” territory, while eight were in “normal” and “above normal” territory.
Exports from South Korea, a bellwether for global demand of semiconductors to batteries, surged in early August at the fastest pace since May 2022. Shipments of semiconductors, in particular, soared by about 42% from the prior year.
The solid print is rare these days in the world of trade, where slowing economic growth, hefty tariffs and shifting supply chains weigh on demand — with no indication of abating. (…)
While robust retail sales quelled immediate investor fears about increasing recession risk in the US, manufacturing activity shrank at the fastest pace this year, as new orders declined. It was a similar story in the Eurozone, where manufacturing output went deeper into contraction. (…)
From S&P Global’s August Global Manufacturing PMI:
August saw global manufacturing production decrease, albeit only slightly, for the first time in 2024 so far. Output contracted in both the intermediate and investment goods industries. Although the upturn at consumer goods producers continued, the rate of growth was only mild and the weakest during the current 13-month sequence of expansion.
July and August have seen back-to-back contractions in the level of new work received by global manufacturers. The rate of growth was also identical to the prior survey month.
All three of the sub-industries covered by the survey (consumer, intermediate and investment goods) saw new order intakes decrease. The trend in global trade flows was especially subdued, as the volume of new export business fell for the third straight month and at the quickest pace since last December. China, the US, Japan, Germany and the UK were among the larger exporting nations to register reduced new export order intakes.
All this while Americans keep splurging on goods. Maybe the recent manufacturing weakness was due to inventory management, which may be over…
China’s $6.5 Trillion Stock Rout Worsens Economic Peril for Xi
(…) The risk for Xi Jinping’s government is that the market slump further erodes confidence among consumers and businesses, spurring a deflationary feedback loop for the economy. That’s one reason why state-backed funds have spent billions of dollars trying to prop up stock prices, to little avail. (…)
Just this year, state funds are estimated to have purchased around $66 billion worth of exchange-traded funds to prop up stocks through mid-August. Restrictions have been tightened over quant trading and short selling in a bid to reduce volatility, while companies are urged to boost buybacks and dividend payouts. In February, China replaced the head of its securities regulator in a surprise move. (…)
In all, about $6.5 trillion has been wiped out from the market value of Chinese and Hong Kong stocks since a peak reached in 2021. (…)
Earnings per share for the MSCI China Index fell 4.5% from a year earlier in the second quarter, the worst performance in five quarters, according to data from Bloomberg Intelligence. (…)
Goldman Sachs CEO says trading revenue is heading for a 10% slide in 3Q
Goldman Sachs’ trading revenue will probably slip 10% in the third quarter because of sluggish conditions last month, CEO David Solomon said on Monday.
Given “a more challenging macro environment, particularly in the month of August, that business is trending down close to 10%,” Solomon told investors at a financial conference in New York.
The slide will follow a very strong quarter for trading in the third quarter of 2023, when equities revenue jumped 8%. (…)
Investment banking continues to improve, even though activity from financial sponsors has not rebounded as much as expected, said Solomon, who was hopeful that private equity-led deals will bounce back at the end of this year and in 2025. (…)
Citigroup’s Chief Financial Officer Mark Mason told the same conference earlier Monday that investment banking fees are expected to jump 20% in the third quarter from a year earlier. (…)
“The combination of those things this quarter will likely have an approximately $400 million pre-tax impact, largely showing up in revenues,” Solomon said. (…)
Meanwhile, the U.S. economy has been in “reasonable shape,” suggesting credit conditions will remain relatively steady, he said.
- Biggest US Banks’ Capital Hike Chopped in Half in Latest Plan by Regulators Top banks face 9% increase in revised plan from 19% earlier
(…) The capital overhaul first announced in July 2023 is tied to Basel III, an international accord that started more than a decade ago in response to the global financial crisis of 2008. (…)
APPLE DAY YESTERDAY?
Hmmm…