US FLASH PMI

Faster growth in June, but lower employment and elevated price inflation

June saw US businesses report the largest rise in output since January, according to provisional PMI data. The headline flash S&P Global US PMI Composite Output Index rose from 51.5 in May to 52.2. While the latest reading signals an improvement in the growth trajectory from March’s two-and-a-half year low, the expansion remains subdued compared to the start of the year, prior to the outbreak of the war in the Middle East.

The June survey also pointed to an ongoing bifurcation of the economy, with sluggish service sector growth contrasting with an increasingly solid manufacturing expansion.

Although notching up its largest increase in business activity since February, buoyed in some cases by the soccer World Cup, the service sector again reported only a modest increase in both output and new orders. Service providers often cited elevated prices, higher interest rates, and low confidence among both business and consumer customers.

In contrast, manufacturing output grew at the fastest rate since July 2021 in response to the largest rise in new orders for just over four years. However, the manufacturing expansion was again partly attributable to demand being temporarily supported by the front-running of potential supply issues and price hikes associated with the war.

Input buying by factories rose at a pace not seen since September 2021, and inventories of inputs were accumulated in June at the fastest rate in the near-two-decade survey history barring only the rise following the announcement of tariffs in 2025.

Exports of both goods and services continued to fall.

Supply chain delays grew more widespread in June. Supplier delivery times lengthened on average to the greatest extent since August 2022, commonly linked to shipping disruptions due to the war in the Middle East as well as tariffs.

Average input prices meanwhile rose sharply, the rate of inflation dipping from May but nonetheless the third-highest recorded since the start of 2023. Although manufacturing input cost inflation moderated from May’s recent peak, it was the second-highest for almost four years. Services input cost inflation meanwhile edged up to a six-month high.

Average prices charged for goods and services rose at a pace unchanged on that seen in May, which had been the highest since July 2025. Cooler, but still elevated, goods price inflation was accompanied by an increase in service sector selling price inflation to an 11-month high.

Employment fell for a second month running in June, and for the third time in the past four months, as companies commonly continued to focus on cost reduction amid high input prices and concerns over the outlook. While only a modest drop in services jobs was reported, manufacturing headcounts were cut at the fastest rate since the COVID-19 lockdowns of early 2020.

Companies’ expectations for output in the year ahead improved in June to the brightest since February, lifting in both manufacturing and services. Improved outlooks were partly linked to hopes of an easing of war-related disruptions and price pressures. In both cases sentiment nonetheless remained well below long-run averages to point to historically subdued business confidence overall, often blamed on uncertainty over the economic outlook amid concerns relating to the ongoing impact of the war in the Middle East and government policies such as tariffs.

Chris Williamson:

“The survey signals that current output levels are consistent with the economy struggling to grow much faster than a 1% annualized rate in the second quarter.

“The service sector continues to grow at an especially subdued pace, reflecting push-back from customers over high prices amid low levels of consumer confidence in particular. While there is better news from the manufacturing sector, we remain concerned as factory growth continues to be temporarily buoyed by inventory building amid supply fears. (…)

“Most worrying was the further fall in employment, notably in the manufacturing sector. Factory job cuts are running at the highest since 2009 if the pandemic is excluded, reflecting concerns over the sustainability of the recent upturn in demand alongside worries over the escalating cost of raw materials.” (…)

 

The Narrative in Markets Is Changing

The narrative in markets is changing from “lower oil prices mean lower inflation” to “lower oil prices mean more demand in an already overheating economy, which means higher inflation.”

Driven by the strong April CPI, hot May non-farm payrolls and a hawkish Fed, the market narrative now suggests that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will further overheat the economy, forcing the Fed to raise interest rates soon.

South Korea stock volatility hits record high amid AI doubts

(…) Volatility in the Kospi hit a record high, with moves in the market intensified by the growing popularity of single-stock leveraged exchange traded funds among retail investors.

“These single-name leveraged ETFs just amplify volatility,” said Song Zhe, a senior investment specialist at BNP Paribas Asset Management. 

South Korea introduced leveraged ETFs tied to popular stocks such as Samsung and SK Hynix in late May. On Monday, Lee Chan-jin, head of the Financial Supervisory Service, expressed regret for an ETF rollout that he said had been done “in a hurry”. (…)

John Authers:

(…) Korean regulators recently allowed similar single-company ETFs in Korea — and spooked the market this week by publicly regretting doing so. It’s hard to see why anyone would ever want a double-leveraged ETF, particularly in a company already prone to big movements.

Leverage might help add juice to a sure-fire, low-return investment to make it worthwhile — but making an already risky bet even more volatile is plain dumb. In this case, if the ETF is working according plan, holders should have seen yesterday’s 13.2% fall for Hynix translated into a 26.4% loss.

No wonder Korea’s regulators are kicking themselves for allowing them, while investors in the rest of the world are alarmed that the plunge could feed on itself.

 

Once an ETF is launched, people will tend to use it. The financial industry will take every opportunity to sell it — but if your investment case relies on new suckers being lured in to buy ETFs, it’s probably not a good one. For a recent case in point, Bitcoin — once the ultimate anti-establishment investment — went on a massive rally after big institutions persuaded the Securities and Exchange Commission to license spot Bitcoin ETFs. That is now well and truly over:

The events in Korea predictably had their greatest impact on US momentum stocks, which have been winning of late. The ETF tracking the S&P 500 momentum index had its second-worst session since Liberation Day last year, but that has to be viewed in the context of the stunning rally that had preceded it:

The SOX semiconductor index, even after Tuesday’s selloff, remains far ahead of its 200-day moving average. Indeed, it’s still more overbought than at any time since the peak of the dot-com boom:

Good news: So far, this isn’t even a correction. Worse news: That leaves much space for over-levered investors to suffer losses that they cannot afford. That was the risk that preoccupied traders from Seoul to Manhattan. And as the market is over-extended, bringing with it the risk of a big reaction to bad news, it’s not surprising that people wanted to get out ahead of the next opportunity for genuine news on the fundamentals. (…)

Not a Korean invention: there are 478 Single Stock ETFs in the US with total AUMs of $56.4B. You will not be surprised to learn that the bulk of the money speculates in tech stocks.

What you should know (my emphasis):

• “These funds are designed as tactical trading instruments, allowing investors to express a high-conviction, short-term view on a specific stock’s direction.”
• “The key to these structure is the use of financial derivatives. Rather than simply holding the underlying stock, these ETFs utilize swap agreements, options and other contracts to achieve their stated investment objective, such as providing twice (2x) the daily return of the stock or the inverse (-1x) of its daily return. This derivatives-based approach allows the fund to deliver leveraged or inverse exposure without the investor needing to directly manage the complexities of margin or options.”
• “It is critical for investors to understand that these ETFs are rebalanced daily. This means their performance over periods longer than one day can differ significantly from the stated multiple of the underlying stock’s performance due to the effects of compounding. For this reason, they are intended for active, sophisticated investors who understand their mechanics and risks. This innovative structure provides a powerful tool for traders, offering access to leveraged and inverse strategies through a regulated, transparent, and accessible ETF.”
• “Single-stock ETFs are significantly more expensive than standard index funds, often carrying net management fees around [or more than] 1.10%.”

POOL SIDE CHATTING

Readers of this blog are very smart.

Barry sent me a link to a June 23 NYT piece Trump Blames Vandals for Reflecting Pool Problems. Internal Records Tell Another Story, presumably as evidence that Trump simply lies when things don’t turn positive for him. “Not only does he lie, he also has others in his admin to repeat and amplify the lies” Barry added while highlighting what he considers critical to his assertions:

President Trump says the peeling blue coating and algae blooms that mar his $16.4 million renovation of the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool are the fault of vandals working with “knives” in the “dark of night.”

[A spokeperson from the Interior Department added that it was “vandalism by leftist activists.”]

But government documents obtained by The New York Times show that while National Park Service workers found two cuts in sections of foam between the pool’s expansion joints, those were not directly related to the “American flag blue” coating that is now peeling, or to the algae that has turned the pool a bright shade of green. (…)

While a June 9 report by the U.S. Park Police described the cuts as “razor blade slashes” made along a 20-foot-long stretch of the foam, the administration has yet to present evidence supporting that assertion. The documents reviewed by The Times described them as two 171-foot blade cuts but did not address how they were made.

By June 16, workers had noticed that chunks of blue sealant that covered the pool’s bottom were peeling and floating to the surface, the documents show. (…)

But on June 15, Mr. Trump was still declaring the renovation a success, telling reporters that “I’m very good at building things and constructing things.” (…)

On Tuesday, the president said on social media that six people had been arrested, and seven others had been cited, for slashing the pool’s sealant with a “sharp knife or razors.”

“It was purposefully and criminally done, and somebody had to work very hard, probably in the dark of night,” he wrote.

Mr. Trump also told reporters on Monday, without offering evidence, that vandals had poured fertilizer into the pool to feed the algae.

Neither the Interior Department nor the White House would provide charging documents, citations or the names of anyone arrested. They did share the Park Police incident report, which said any suspect or suspects were unknown. The report also did not mention any damage to the pool’s blue sealant, nor did it describe any vandals dumping fertilizer. (…)

Though Mr. Trump claimed vandals dumped fertilizer in the pool, his administration refilled it with D.C. municipal water, which is treated with phosphate to keep lead from leaching out of old pipes. But phosphate also provides nutrients for algae, as do droppings from ducks swimming in the pool. (…)

Anthony Flett, the chief executive of U.S. Coating Specialists, a Florida-based company that specializes in waterproofing coatings, reviewed the documents at the request of The Times. He wouldn’t dismiss vandalism, but said it appeared that the sealant may be peeling off because not enough material was applied. (…)

“There’s people in the pool industry whose whole life is polyurea, and they should have been called in,” Mr. Flett said. “They should have been there to watch over the project to make sure that these failures weren’t prevalent. I think it was just done too hastily.” (…)

Barry said “how can we Americans, or anybody else, know what is true or false from this administration, particularly when reading about the US-Iran negotiations, when we see Trump shamelessly lying about simple pool stuff to save his own skin?” He added “when Trump or Vance say Iran agreed to something and Iran denies it, who’s to believe after the blatant lies about the DC pool?”

But Barry, you should know that Trump has already dismissed such articles as “fake”, particularly the NYT’s, a “true enemy of the people” that “freely spreads lies and purposeful misrepresentations.”

Maybe even this whole Pool Side Chat is fake and full of lies.

Except the first seven words.

FLASH PMIs

Eurozone: Downturn in eurozone private sector eases in June as inflationary pressures show signs of softening

Provisional PMI® survey data for June signalled a further reduction in business activity across the eurozone’s private sector amid sustained falls in new orders.

Underlying data pointed to a slower fall in services activity, while manufacturing production continued to rise modestly. New business decreased for the fourth consecutive month, albeit slightly and at the slowest pace since March. A renewed and marginal increase in manufacturing new orders was insufficient to counteract a further fall in services activity.

A slight drop in employment was also recorded again.

Meanwhile, there were signs of inflationary pressures softening, with input costs rising at the slowest pace since the outbreak of war in the Middle East and output charges increasing at the weakest rate in three months. Manufacturers continued to signal sharply lengthened suppliers’ delivery times, while the recent spell of rising purchasing activity came to an end.

Most of the responses used in the calculation of the June flash PMI data were received prior to the signing of the memorandum of understanding for a cessation of hostilities between the US and Iran on June 17th.

Japan: Stronger rise in business activity across Japan in June, but rate of cost inflation hits near four-year high

The latest Flash PMI® data, compiled by S&P Global, pointed to the strongest rise in total business activity across Japan’s private sector for three months in June.

This was supported by a quicker increase in manufacturing output and a renewed upturn in services activity, with both sectors reporting firmer demand conditions. Greater amounts of backlogged work meanwhile encouraged firms to expand their payrolls again.

Demand conditions also strengthened across Japan during June, with new business at the composite level rising to the greatest extent in four months. Steeper increases in new orders were seen across both the manufacturing and service sectors. Notably, goods producers signalled the quickest upturn in sales since January 2022, which was partly linked to stock building efforts among clients due to ongoing supply disruption and concerns over future price hikes linked to the war in the Middle East.

Whilst external demand conditions also improved, new export business rose only marginally overall, with the rate of growth the slowest seen in six months. Sector data indicated that manufacturers recorded a slightly softer but still solid rise in new export orders, but services companies signalled a further marked drop in foreign demand.

However, input costs rose at an accelerated pace that was the fastest since July 2022, which led to another substantial increase in average selling prices. Furthermore, concerns around inflation and supply chain disruption due to the war in the Middle East meant that forecasts for the year-ahead remained muted by historical standards.

“It is important to note that the current period of growth is partly being driven by stock-piling efforts, and these efforts are likely to fade in the months ahead,” said Annabel Fiddes, economics associate director at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Trump’s New US Tariff Wall Shakes Up Winners, Losers Lineup

(…) To make tariffs more legally sound, many countries are subject to investigations under accusations of trade unfairness — with the most prominent two focused on forced-labor rules and excess industrial capacity.

The actions were brought under a legal authority known as Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. Not all countries are targets of the probes, and when Trump’s temporary 10% across-the-board tariffs expire at the end of July, some stand to gain a competitive edge with a lower rate than they had before. Others could end up worse off.

With Trump, though, it’s wise to assume a wild card in policy making. On trade, that’s been the administration’s use of exemptions from tariffs for imports it doesn’t want to make more costly to buy from abroad, like AI equipment or farm tractors or Brazilian coffee. On the flipside are inclusions that can add items and broaden the scope of tariff targets.

Another unresolved issue is what happens with economies like India, the European Union, Japan, South Korea and the UK that signed trade agreements capping their tariff rates at lower negotiated levels — especially on automobiles. US officials have sought to reassure them that those agreements remain intact. (…)

At first glance, Canada appears better positioned, with tariffs on imports lower than the April 2025. There are key exemptions for USMCA-qualified goods. Still, industry-specific tariffs on metals have strained Canadian industry. (…)

Mexico is pushing for relief on sector-specific auto tariff rates, arguing that their rate exceeds those of some vehicles imported from South Korea or Japan. As part of the ongoing USMCA talks, Washington is pushing Mexico to implement a rule for cars in the North American trade zone to be comprised of at least 50% American-sourced goods. The talks will continue through at least July, making it unclear how Mexico’s trade impact will shake out in the near term.

The EU is under pressure from the US to codify its trade agreement. The European Parliament and EU countries still need to vote to ratify the finished text before a July 4 deadline imposed by Trump. The US president said that if the deal isn’t in place by then, he will hike tariffs on European automobiles to 25% from 15%, though Greer has sought to assure Brussels that “a deal’s a deal.”

The parliament did its part last week, voting to approve the pact. EU countries are expected to give their final nod later this week, the last step in a fitful, yearlong ratification process.

But just last week, Trump launched a 301 investigation against Germany, citing “persistent underpayment for innovative pharmaceutical products.” In response, Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he expects the US to stand by its trade commitments with Europe, adding that decisions on pharmaceutical payments are a domestic matter.

China is in a vastly better position than it was at the top of Trump’s second term. During his presidential campaign in 2024, he vowed to implement a 60% tariff on China. The effective rate now sits at roughly 21%, according to analysis by Bloomberg Economics.

The US and China are set to revisit their tariff truce this fall. While much could happen between now and then, Chinese leader Xi Jinping demonstrated the country’s leverage over the US economy by blockading its rare earths exports last year.

‘Overtake the world’: Kim Jong-un calls for expanding nuclear arsenal

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has called for a significant expansion of the country’s nuclear arsenal. According to state media reports, he has asked officials to strengthen defense capabilities “with a goal of overtaking the world.” The remarks were made during a three-day plenary meeting of the ruling Workers’s Party of Korea (WPK).

Trump called Kim a “madman” and “Little Rocket Man” in 2017, threatening to “totally destroy North Korea with fire and fury like the world has never seen.” during a speech at the United Nations.

He also said Kim was a “pretty smart cookie”.

Bob Woodward’s book “Rage” revealed what Trump described as “love letters,” in which Kim referred to Trump as “Your Excellency”.

In a June 2019 letter to Kim, Trump wrote that “you and I have a unique style and a special friendship.”

“Only you and I, working together, can resolve the issues between our two counties and end nearly 70 years of hostility, bringing an era of prosperity to the Korean Peninsula that will exceed all our greatest expectations — and you will be the one to lead,” Trump wrote. “It will be historic!”

On December 30, 2019, Trump told Woodward: “If I weren’t president, we would have – perhaps it would be over by now, and perhaps it wouldn’t – we would’ve been in a major war.”

Trump argued he “gave up nothing” by meeting with Kim, although North Korea hasn’t followed through with the denuclearization steps that the US was seeking. Trump’s critics say the meetings provided Kim the legitimacy on the world stage he desperately sought without curtailing Pyongyang’s nuclear program.

“The [CIA] analysts marveled at the skill someone brought to finding the exact mixture of flattery while appealing to Trump’s sense of grandiosity and being center stage in history.” (CNN)

In 2025, Trump boasted of having a “very good relationship” with Kim. “He was very good with me … We got along great,” claiming to know Kim “better than anybody, almost.”

South Korea’s Lee warned in 2025 that the number of North Korea’s nuclear weapons has increased 2.5 times in just the last few years. The nation is now in the “final stages” of developing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that “can target far away distances,” he said, adding: “The situation is deteriorating.”

In April 2026, Trump highlighted that Kim had been speaking “nicely” about him. He even bucked decades of US policy by stating North Korea was “sort of a nuclear power”.

On June 14, “Trump posted an uncaptioned photo of himself and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un taken at a meeting in Singapore in 2018.” (Aljazera)

Last week:

United States President Donald Trump intends to shift his focus to North Korea’s nuclear programme now that Washington has reached an agreement with Iran, South Korea’s president has said.

Lee Jae Myung said in a news conference that Trump told him on Friday at a G7 dinner that “the time had come to pay attention to the North Korea issue,” a comment that could signal renewed US focus on Pyongyang’s nuclear capabilities. (Aljazera)

A “pretty smart cookie” indeed.

• “In April, Kim said North Korea could pre-emptively use nuclear weapons if threatened, saying they would “never be confined to the single mission of war deterrent.” Kim’s military has also test launched nuclear-capable missiles that place both the U.S. mainland and South Korea within striking distance.” (CBC)
• In 2023, “following a launch of North Korea’s most powerful solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile, Kim declared the successful test was a “clear warning” that his military could hit anywhere in North America if Washington made a “wrong decision”.” (DW News)

No worries. Trump Monday said “”I’m a problem solver, I get problems solved real fast — including with Bibi.”

Chart-Topping Pacific Ocean Heat Augurs Unusually Strong El Niño

Exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are setting the stage for a potential “super” El Niño of record-breaking intensity.

Temperatures in a part of the equatorial Pacific that’s closely monitored to define El Niño and La Niña events are currently at 29.4C (84.9F), or 1.7C above the 30-year average, according to the latest data from US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. That’s on track to be the largest warm deviation from the historical average for June since 1981, the data show.

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that can cause drenching rains in one part of the world and drought in another. (…)

Scientists “have seen water temperatures like this before, but they have never seen the intensification, the rate of change, as we moved out of La Niña” earlier this year, Horton said.

The US Climate Prediction Center, part of NOAA, currently predicts an 89% chance of El Niño reaching at least strong intensity by December, and a 62% that it will be very strong by that time.

While a strong El Niño makes severe weather impacts more likely, the correlation is not a certain one. Another consideration is how long the El Niño lasts, and current forecasts do not provide much guidance beyond early 2027.

A minor, short-lived El Niño will not break global temperature records, Horton said, while a minor and long-lived one will. “And if you have a major one that’s moderate to long-lived, we’ll smash them,” he said.

“Long El Niño can last up to 18 months,” Horton said. “But maybe we’ll stay in it for 24 months. You don’t know.”

Science News:

In addition to raising global temperatures, El Niños alter the position of the Pacific jet stream, meaning some areas become drier, while others become wetter. For the United States, one of the most significant impacts is on tropical cyclones: While El Niño years typically can mean more numerous and intense cyclones in the Pacific, changing wind regimes can hamper hurricane formation in the Atlantic.

The 1997–98 event was the strongest on record. It raised the average global temperature for that period by 1.5 degrees Celsius, and led to devastating extreme weather events. Those included torrential rains and floods in Peru and East Africa that in turn triggered an outbreak of Rift Valley fever in the region; droughts that kicked off deadly wildfires in Southeast Asia; powerful storms that resulted in catastrophic flooding and landslides in California. Soaring ocean temperatures caused bleaching in about 16 percent of the world’s coral reefs.

Such strong El Niños leave a long mark on the global economy, researchers reported in 2023 in Science. Global economic losses attributed to the 1997–98 event are estimated to be about $5.7 trillion. The 1982–83 event cost the world an estimated $4.1 billion.

Whether this year’s event will reach super status is not yet certain. But because the event is occurring on top of already rapidly warming global temperatures due to human-caused climate change, its impacts will likely be dramatic even if the event turns out only to be moderately strong, Di Liberto says. “It would not take a very strong El Niño to see records broken this year.”

• Intensifying Heat Wave Threatens to Set Records Across Europe

(…) The heat wave is spreading north from mainland Europe, where it’s plagued France for nearly a week. Extreme temperatures, fueled by a high-pressure heat dome directed across the continent by atmospheric changes from a developing El Niño, have already been linked to several deaths.

Temperatures in southern England will rise rapidly on Tuesday, before climbing to a peak of at least 39C on Wednesday and Thursday, according to the Met Office. That would shatter the all-time high for June of 35.6C, reached in 1957 and 1976. (…)

Red heat warnings have also been issued for Germany, Luxembourg and Switzerland, with amber and yellow alerts in effect for much of mainland Europe. (…)

The heat wave is putting pressure on Europe’s power grid and energy markets, with record cooling demand. Supply has been constrained by weak wind generation and restrictions at some French nuclear plants, where hot river temperatures can limit reactor output. The squeeze pushed French and German day-ahead electricity prices higher on Monday.

In Rome, the cabinet approved economic provisions to protect workers in case of disruptions due to excessive heat. The decree allows certain companies to suspend or reduce work hours during heat waves and gain access to wage-supplement benefits, according to a statement from the government. (…)

• A Stock Trader’s Guide to Navigating a Rare ‘Super El Niño’

A high probability of a “Super El Niño” heading into 2027 may drive up temperatures in some parts of the world, sending power demand surging, hurting crop yields and reigniting inflationary pressures. That could complicate the outlook for central banks, posing a risk to global equities trading near record highs.

“El Niño arrives at an especially sensitive moment,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. “The global economy is still adjusting to the inflationary consequences of the Iran conflict, while supply chains remain vulnerable following months of disruption.” (…)

The last time the world faced such a strong El Niño, in 2015 and 2016, the result was more than $7.8 trillion in lost productivity, based on a Dartmouth College study.

Crop producers are likely to bear the brunt of a stronger El Niño, though the impact will vary across regions and commodities. (…)

Fertilizer firms could be among the biggest beneficiaries of El Niño if the weather pattern tightens global crop supplies, supporting demand for key nutrients including nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium. (…)

“All signs point to a rare El Niño event emerging, creating cooler summer and warmer winter temperatures in the US and thus a bearish natural gas demand environment,” Truist Securities Inc. analyst Gabe Daoud wrote in a note.

In Asia, higher-than-normal temperatures will boost air-conditioning use and strain power grids when energy prices are already elevated. (…)

We believe that we will win

The USA entered this year’s World Cup with high hopes but middling realistic expectations. After two thrilling wins for the host nation, even soccer-skeptical sports fans are boarding the bandwagon, Axios’ Alex Fitzpatrick writes.

• A 4-1 blowout against Paraguay and Friday’s 2-0 win over Australia allowed USA to clinch Group D, even before this Thursday’s game against Turkey.

That means USA is definitely headed for the knockout round of 32. USA’s first win-or-go-home match is set for July 1 in Santa Clara, Calif. Their opponent is TBD.

Winning the group means USA will play against a third-place team from another group — potentially a big advantage. It also avoids a round-of-16 matchup against defending champs Argentina, The Washington Post notes.

A deep USA run right around the country’s 250th birthday would be an ideal summer kickoff.

• USA Today Sports columnist Nancy Armour sums up the vibes heading into the elimination round: “If you’re not enchanted with the U.S. men’s national team after their 2-0 win over Australia … you’re going to miss out on a whole lot of fun these next few weeks.”

Goldman Sachs puts a 5.1% probability that the US will be in the final against Spain (35.2%), Argentina (38.7%) or France (30.3%). Odds of winning it all: 1.7%.

BTW, today’s WSJ Editorial Board:

America’s Immigrant Soccer Team A quarter of the World Cup squad was born outside of the U.S.

The Supreme Court is expected to rule soon on President Trump’s birthright citizenship order. Win—or more likely—lose, he might take note that the success of the U.S. men’s national soccer team in this year’s World Cup is the product in part of America’s historically welcoming immigration system and automatic grant of birthright citizenship to children born in the U.S.

The U.S. team last week clinched a spot in the knockout round after defeating Australia. A quarter of its players were born outside of the U.S., (…)

Many players are also first- or second-generation Americans of diverse descent. (…)

Star striker Folarin Balogun, who scored two goals in the opening game victory over Paraguay, was born in Brooklyn in 2001 to a Nigerian mother visiting New York from London. Two months later she returned with him to the U.K. where he grew up. Under Mr. Trump’s birthright citizenship order, he wouldn’t have automatically received U.S. citizenship since his mom was a temporary visitor. He may not have been eligible for the U.S. team.

As our friend Stuart Anderson noted in a recent piece for Reason magazine, “hiring athletic talent from around the world has enhanced the quality of play and attracted more fans domestically and internationally” for U.S. soccer and other professional sports. America’s World Cup men’s team shows again how bringing in foreign talent can be a win for the individuals and for the country.

How about baseball, football and basketball…